Social Implementation of Tsunami Prediction System on Wakayama by Using DONET Information

High possibility of occurrence of earthquake with M9 or lager in the Nankai subduction zone was pointed out by Cabinet Office of Japanese government. Local governments along the area revised estimation of tsunami damages and attempt to reconstruct action plans for the disaster prevention. However, according to Cabinet office of Japanese government, the coastal area near the rupture zone receives huge tsunami within a few minutes after the earthquake happens. To take actions against the severe situation, we need a high-speed, and high-accurate tsunami prediction system. Baba et al. (2014) investigated the possibility for use of a concept of tsunami amplification in the early tsunami prediction. They computed tsunami waveforms at the twenty pressure gauges of dense ocean floor network system for earthquakes and tsunamis (DONET) and at prediction points near shore. They found clear correlations between them because tsunami height basically depends on the topography (bathymetry) during its propagation. In this study, an early tsunami prediction system using the concept of tsunami amplification was societally implemented in 6 regional areas in Wakayama Prefecture. We constructed a tsunami database that contains pre-computed tsunamis offshore and nearshore from 1506 earthquake scenarios may occur in the Nankai subduction zones. The new system detects first arrivals of earthquake and tsunami from DONET data in real time, and calculate average value of absolute observed pressure values among twenty DONET stations. The value is used to select an appropriate scenario from the tsunami database. Prediction accuracy of the system was also investigated by using cases of the 1944 Tonankai earthquake and the scenario earthquake provided by the Cabinet office. As a result, we found that predicted inundation area to be overestimated as the safety of the prediction.南海トラフの沈み込み帯において，M9クラス巨大地震とそれにともなう巨大津波の発生の可能性が内閣府により指摘されて久しい。この津波被害想定によると，地震域近傍の沿岸地域では地震発生から数分後に巨大な津波が到達してしまうため，津波防災に向けた行動計画の再構築や人的被害軽減のための迅速な対応策の検討が極めて重要になる。その対応策のひとつとして，高速かつ高精度な即時津波予測が有効と考えられる。本研究では，地震と津波観測に向けた稠密海底観測網(DONET)による沖合観測網を利用した即時津波予測システムを構築し，和歌山県沿岸6地域において実装を行い，その有効性の検討を行った。本システムにより，地震と津波の初動到達時間を即時評価できること，沿岸津波高や浸水域の即時予測が可能であることを示した。さらに，1944年昭和東南海地震の事例と内閣府のM9クラス巨大地震の波源シナリオを用いて本システムの予測精度を検証した。本システムで即時予測される沿岸津波高や浸水域面積はやや過大評価傾向にあるものの，おおむね安全側の予測結果となり，津波防災上有効なシステムであることを示した

Lymphocyte recruitment and homing to the liver in primary biliary cirrhosis and primary sclerosing cholangitis

The mechanisms operating in lymphocyte recruitment and homing to liver are reviewed. A literature review was performed on primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC), progressive sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), and homing mechanisms; a total of 130 papers were selected for discussion. Available data suggest that in addition to a specific role for CCL25 in PSC, the CC chemokines CCL21 and CCL28 and the CXC chemokines CXCL9 and CXCL10 are involved in the recruitment of T lymphocytes into the portal tract in PBC and PSC. Once entering the liver, lymphocytes localize to bile duct and retain by the combinatorial or sequential action of CXCL12, CXCL16, CX3CL1, and CCL28 and possibly CXCL9 and CXCL10. The relative importance of these chemokines in the recruitment or the retention of lymphocytes around the bile ducts remains unclear. The available data remain limited but underscore the importance of recruitment and homing

Realtime Tsunami Prediction System Using Ocean Floor Network for Local Regions

The ocean floor network system for earthquakes and tsunamis is one of the effective tools for the early detection of large earthquakes on plate boundaries and the tsunamis they generate. The Dense Oceanfloor Network system for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET) was installed in the first rupture areas of the 1944 Tonankai and 1946 Nankai earthquakes. The DONET around the Nankai Trough, a site of huge earthquakes that have caused severe damage, has the potential to detect the genesis of a tsunami. We developed a real-time tsunami prediction system for local communities that takes advantage of the features of DONET, and we have already made it available to several local governments and a commercial company. The outputs of the prediction are the tsunami arrival time, its height, its inundation area, and inundation depth. The system makes real-time monitoring of tsunamis possible. The system should be conceptually applicable to the Nankai Trough area, which has characteristics consistent with the assumptions the system makes about tsunami propagation, crustal activities, and coastal communities. Here, we describe the conceptual basis of the system, the features used to ensure the accuracy of predictions, and the policies used to develop and implement them

Impact of Competitive Fe(III) Ion on the Complexation of Humic Acid and Toxic Metal Ions

環境中の主要な有機配位子である腐植物質の一種であるフミン酸について，金属イオン（Be2＋，Ni2＋，Co2＋，Cd2＋，Pb2＋）-フミン酸錯体の見かけの錯生成定数（log β）及び静電的影響を排した真の錯生成定数（log KMA）をFe3＋イオン競合条件下において決定した．Ni2＋イオン及びCd2＋イオンはFe3＋イオン濃度増加に伴いlog βが減少し，競合の影響を受けることが示された．Co2＋イオンはFe3＋イオン濃度増加に対しlog βはあまり減少せず，競合の影響が小さいことが示された．Pb2＋イオンはほとんど競合の影響を受けず，Fe3＋イオンと異なる結合サイトに結合していることが示唆された．錯平衡モデルを用いて求めたlog KMAを基に，Fe3＋イオン競合下での金属イオンの錯体生成量を見積もり，実測値とモデル計算値の比較を行った．モデル計算値はFe3＋イオンの競合影響を過大評価する傾向にあることが示された